Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that observed daily are far above bounds Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence Granger inference statements about influence on this is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. performed ensembles simulations investigate how event would have changed if it had occurred without change with future warming. found global warming caused ∼0.8°C–1°C increase temperatures. Future lead ∼5°C temperature by end 21st century.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099396